Economic growth forecast raised as Brexit vote response hailed

Sep 22, 2016, 00:29
Economic growth forecast raised as Brexit vote response hailed

Such action has become par for the course in a decidedly underwhelming global marketplace.

Nevertheless, the OECD said growth next year would be "well below" pre-referendum forecasts.

But the organization said the country's gross domestic product is now projected to slow considerably to 1 percent in 2017 from the earlier forecast 2 percent, citing uncertainty about the future policy path and downside risks that remain.

The group warned in July that Britain's decision to leave the European Union could result in a 3 per cent loss in GDP by the end of the decade and is likely to hit employment.

"Since 2012 basically we have a flat line global growth at about 3 percent and going into our projections for 2017 it is a little bit better but not much".

A collapse in trade growth suggests that globalization may be stalling and is contributing to a stagnation in world economic output, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

USA growth was heavily revised down after the country slogged through a disappointing first half of the year.

It has forecast that United Kingdom economy will grow by 1.8% this year, 0.1 percentage points above its last pre-Brexit forecast on 1 June. Germany is forecast to grow by 1.8 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017, France by 1.3 percent in both 2016 and 2017, while Italy will see a 0.8 percent growth rate this year and next.

The outlook warns that a low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages.

Global growth has been revised down for 2016 and 2017, according to the OECD. "No, this is damaging and it shows up as a decline in productivity growth".

Also at issue is what Mann refers to as "overburdened" monetary policy. It advised the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue a "gradual" raising of short-term interest rates, while saying an "accommodative" stance remains appropriate in the eurozone and Japan. These distortions represent risk to a global market that's hardly firing on all cylinders.

The OECD said many global supply chains that add economic value at each stage and are often rooted in China and other east Asian countries were unravelling as China sought to wean its economy off of exports for growth and some firms brought back production to their home countries.

Mann said: "Our downgrades focus on the euro area".

The wider report pointed to the world economy floundering this year to levels not seen since the financial crisis, with globalisation grinding to a halt amid a slump in trade.

"While weak demand is surely playing a role in the trade slowdown, a lack of political support for trade policies whose benefits could be widely shared is of deep concern", Mann said.

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