What are the odds on Brexit — EU referendum betting

Ladbrokes Plc said Tuesday that the odds on a "Remain" vote had shortened to a 2/9 chance, indicating an 82 percent probability.

Recent form suggests the bookies.

The votes are not even yet cast but Britons are already voting with their wallets a day before the key vote to decide whether or not the United Kingdom should leave the European Union.

Now that British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens who are resident in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar are set to troop to the polling precincts to cast their votes, majority of the betting operators are confident that the United Kingdom will not leave the European Union (EU) and has made the Remain camp the odds-on favorite.

"The market would suggest that 55 percent of the United Kingdom electorate would vote to remain in the European Union". "And possibly over the next couple of days the Remain odds will shorten even further". Historically speaking, the betting market has usually proved to be right, which is a definite good news for those who wants to stay in the Union. "If the money [people are betting] comes to something - as is happening here - you should respect that money".

“Even if polls are close, people are paying more attention to the bookmakers because that was a much better predictor in past referendums.”

He admitted: "At the back of my mind, there is the possibility that the high percentage of individual bets on Leave could be an indicator that we got it wrong".

"Although, we didn't catch the size of their majority". Nicholson noted: "When the Sun went with their "Be-Leave in Britain" front page the leave betting hit the lowest ever price 2.20 and the remain price hit its biggest price of 1.67 (4/6)".

None of which guarantees that Remain will win the day Thursday. After drifting last week in the wake of three polls showing a lead for Leave in one day of poll results, the odds have hardened again.

Mr. Goddard said the serious money, involving sums that might make you think quite hard before betting, were going on Remain. And that blows all the fivers on Leave out of the water. "I think the one big unknown here is what the turnout is going to be".

British bookies have already taken in nearly 50 million pounds ($94 million Cdn) worth of bets on the outcome of the vote, which polls give an ever so slight advantage to the "remain" side.

In contrast, the odds of a Leave vote are now 3/1, giving a 25 percent chance that the country will vote for Brexit. "They should still be favourites, but personally, I would put Remain's chances at [only] 67 percent".

“Rising anticipation that ‘Remain will win the vote is driving the market, ” said John Plassard, a senior equity sales trader at Mirabaud Securities in Geneva.

Betfair, bookmakers Ladbrokes and Paddy Power and the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School all estimate that the total value of bets on the vote placed in Britain will reach, and likely exceed, 100 million pounds.

Investors are piling money into bets on a victory for the “Remain” campaign, led by Prime Minister David Cameron. Someone might say "don't know" to a pollster, but their friend placing a bet might be able to talk to them and tell which way they are going to vote.

So what do the bookies make of the likely European Union referendum result? So until 23 June we're running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.