Looking back on the NFL free agency “gong show,” as my boss at RotoWire likes to call it, I have to admit that I’ve never seen anything like it. I felt like I was watching someone’s little brother play franchise-mode on Madden. Of course, as fans, it made us forget that we had just spent four and a half months wondering if we’d even have a season.

In terms of fantasy, this year’s evaluation of free agent movement is more crucial than in any year’s past. Along with the unprecedented amount of transactions, the players on new teams now have to cram to learn a new playbook and will have less time to get acclimated to their surroundings. I’m not saying that you should avoid players on new teams, just realize that there are more factors this off-season than in years past.

Here are the players that I view as having benefited the most from free agency (in no particular order). Notice I have only covered the ”winners” in this article. I will be coming out with my “losers” shortly after this one, so stay tuned.

Winners

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Patriots

The “Ocho” instantly saw his value rise simply by leaving Cincinnati. He was going to be the second option in a run-heavy offense with a rookie QB. Instead, the six-time Pro Bowler gets to catch passes from Tom Brady in one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Sheesh, talk about a night and day difference. However, be careful not to get too giddy about Ochocinco, and when I say giddy I mean Randy Moss circa-’07. Don’t get me wrong, I think “85? can put up high-end WR2, borderline-WR1 numbers, but no way he catches 20+ touchdowns. In fact, I’d be surprised if he caught double-digit tds (something he’s only done once in his career). I’d take him as early as the beginning of the fourth round, expecting 80+ catches, 1,100+ yards and 6-8 touchdowns, with definite upside in a great offense.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

Even though I’m not the biggest believer in Kevin Kolb (too unproven), anyone would admit that his prescence makes Larry Fitzgerald’s stock skyrocket. Last year, Fitzgerald went through about as dismal a situation as a receiver could possibly go through. The Cards won just five games, going through three starting QBs, two of which were rookies. Despite all of this, Fitz finished with 90 catches, 1,137 yards and six touchdowns. We definitely saw his floor last year, which will only rise with an upgrade at QB. Even though I think Kolb will be inconsistent at times, and throw to the wrong jersey more than he should, I think he will be a HUGE improvement from what Fitz was playing with last year. With Steve Breaston now on the Chiefs, Kolb will be looking Fitzy’s way “allll niiiiggght loooong,” making the superhuman receiver a sure-fire top-5 option at his position.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens 

Rice was one of the biggest beneficiaries of free agency and he didn’t even go anywhere. First, the Ravens got rid of the touchdown-vulturing nusaince that was Willis McGahee, presumably leaving Rice to finally take the majority of goal line duties, which he has been fully capable of doing for years. The Ravens’ other notable transaction was the signing of fullback Vonta Leach, who led the way for the league’s leading rusher, Arian Foster, last year. Rice was a solid first-round pick even before these two moves, but now he jumps to the top-5 in my rankings. I expect huge things from Rice this year.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

The release of Roy Williams was hardly shocking given his inconsistency since going to Dallas. Plus, many assumed Bryant would have no problems holding off Williams as the No. 2 WR this year. If anything, the release of Williams assures fantasy owners that the Cowboys are fully committed to Bryant and are less worried about his off-field problems and injury concerns than we may have thought. I keep trying to tell myself to pull on the reins, but when I look at Bryant this year I can’t help but envision a Calvin Johnson-type second-year explosion. I’m willing to spend an early fourth round pick to find out.

Roy Williams, WR, Bears

Speaking of Williams, I think his move to Chicago may just be the right fit for him, and no, it’s not just because he is reunited with Mike Martz. If that was the only positive I saw in Williams, I wouldn’t be buying it. Call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he’s the most talented receiver on that team. It’s also worth noting that he looks to be the top red-zone target with Greg Olsen gone. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s worth the risk drafting Williams as early as the middle of the eighth round.

I feel like I’m obligated to never talk about fantasy football ever again after promoting Roy Williams as a serious fantasy option….But, I guess you’re still reading to this point, so a part of you must agree with me, right?

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals

With Tim Hightower now in Washington (please, send your condolences), the rookie from Virginia Tech is ready to assume the third-down role right out of the gates. I realize Beanie Wells is the starter as of now, but we have no reason to believe he can stay healthy, which makes Williams all the more intriguing. Watch Williams’ college highlights and tell me that he doesn’t remind you of DeAngelo Williams? Maybe it’s just the #34, but I’m willing to draft him as the top rookie this year to prove that it’s not.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams

MSW is a huge risk for every reason you can imagine (injury-prone, attitude issues and inconsistency), but he has proven that he can put up big numbers in spurts. Will going from a sputtering aereal attack in Jacksonville to a pass-happy St. Louis offense be just the change he needs? I think it just might be. Josh McDaniels made a lethal combination out of Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd, just think what he can do with a budding star like Sam Bradford. Granted, there are a boatload of receivers in STL and Sims-Walker only signed a one-year contract, so he could get cut before the season even starts. However, if you look at the Rams receivers you’ll find two coming back from injuries (Clayton and Avery), a possession WR (Amendola) and an unproven injury-risk (Alexander). After the ninth round, most of the players you take will be fliers anyway, so why not take a chance on a guy with top-15 upside?

Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings

This one is pretty simple, it’s all about volume. With Sidney Rice gone, Harvin is without a doubt the top option in the passing game. And, I don’t think Donovan McNabb is going to be as bad as people are predicting him to be, at least in terms of fantasy. Look at how Santana Moss did last year with McNabb, and Harvin is much more explosive than Moss, at this point in their careers. Target Harvin in the late-fourth, early-fifth round of drafts, especially in PPR leagues.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints

I’ve heard about how the Reggie Bush trade has affected the values of Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas, but another player that should be on everyone’s radar is Moore. With Bush no longer there to take targets away from Moore in the slot, I could see the sixth-year receiver having a very nice year, especially in PPR leagues. Remember his big year in 2008 (79 catches, 928 yards, 10 tds)? Well, 25 catches, 383 yards and half of those touchdowns came in the four weeks that Bush was out. I realize the signing of Darren Sproles was an instant buzz-kill to Thomas, but I don’t see him affecting Moore’s value as much since he won’t be lining up in the slot too much. The thing that Moore has on all of the “winners” I just listed is the fact that he has absolutely no hype right now. Let everyone else hype up the hit-or-miss Robert Meachem as a sleeper and target Moore in the double-digit rounds of your draft. He could have an Austin Collie-type year, hopefully without the injuries.

Like what you read? Follow me @MertesMist_TSB to watch out for the second part of my post-free agency recap and follw my reactions to anything and everything fantasy football. See you in the Twitterverse!

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