With NFL free agency news hitting the wire around the clock, the draft discussion is following suit, and NFLNR is right in the thick of things as usual.
My apologies on not getting things updated as of late. Free agency and other assorted things off site have kept me away from my mocks, but I’ll be back to updating them at least twice a week going forward, so be sure to check back often for all the latest changes. Also, I’ve added a second round to the mix, so be sure to check that out as well.
Thanks for all the comments so far and please don’t hesitate to join in if you have an alternate scenario to add to the table.
Now that Washington has officially traded away their first round pick for the next three years to move up to St. Louis’ #2 overall selection, the top end of the draft should start to tighten up a bit.
Updated – Friday 03/30/12
* Indicates trade
- Pick #2: St. Louis to Washington
- Pick #6: Washington to St. Louis
- Pick #17: Oakland to Cincinnati
- Pick #26: New Orleans to New England
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1. Indianapolis — QB Andrew Luck (Stanford) — Now that the elder Manning is out of the way, it’s full steam ahead for the Colts on the Andrew Luck train. For better or worse, Indianapolis has thrown in their lot with Luck and while the consensus is that he’s as good of a QB prospect to come out as John Elway was long ago, it’s going to take some time for him to develop. |
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2. Washington — QB – Robert Griffin III (Baylor) * — Thankfully I switched this pick over to the Redskins in the last update and after last night’s trade made it official, I look prophetic. All self-aggrandizement aside, moving up to get RGIII is the right move for Washington, even if they had to give up their drafts for the two years following this one to do it. |
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3. Minnesota — OT Matt Kalil (USC) — Now that the Rams have traded out of their pick, there’s little doubt that the Vikings will use their selection to solidify their offensive line and lock down Christian Ponder’s blindside for years to come. Kalil is by far and away the best tackle in this class and compares favorably to Joe Thomas. |
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4. Cleveland – RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) — With the Browns on the outside looking in on the RGIII sweepstakes, the only logical player for them at this juncture is Richardson, who can step in from day one and be a dominant rusher in the mold of Adrian Peterson. Solidifying their rushing game certainly won’t hurt Colt McCoy’s chances of success in any case. |
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5. Tampa Bay — CB Morris Claiborne (LSU) — The Bucs have a desperate need at corner as right now, and while they’d love to upgrade at the running back spot, passing on Claiborne would be crazy given just how bad they need to upgrade at his position. They’ll consider Trent Richardson here, but fixing the defense has to come first. |
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6. St. Louis – WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) * — Upgrading one of the league’s worst receiving corps has to be priority number one for the Rams in this draft, and they’d be very content to snag two first round picks and a second rounder as well in return for the #2 overall selection along with a playmaker like Blackmon. Giving Sam Bradford a new toy should help out in getting him back to the form he showed us two seasons ago. |
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7. Jacksonville — DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina) — It’s amazing how bad the Jaguars defensive line is with all the top level draft picks they’ve invested into fixing it in recent years, and while it’s possible they’ll go after a receiver to help Blaine Gabbert, adding Coples makes more sense right now. |
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8. Miami — OT Riley Reiff (Iowa) — I’m not as enamored with Reiff as some are, but I will admit that he’s talented enough to warrant a selection here, should the Dolphins choose to upgrade their offensive line, rather than focus on their defense. Paired with Jake Long, the addition of Reiff to the fold should pay dividends in keeping Miami’s quarterback upright more often than not. |
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9. Carolina — DT Dontari Poe (Memphis) — Upgrading their defensive line will be the highest priority on the docket for the Panthers this off-season, and while they could choose to address that need via free agency, I think they’ll focus on finding players to fill that role in the draft instead. I’ve hesitated putting Poe this high, mostly because I think he’s a workout warrior and doesn’t have the production to match, but somebody is going to be excited about his potential and it could very well be the Panthers. |
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10. Buffalo — WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) — The signing of Mario Williams to a massive free agent deal took care of the Bills need for an impact pass rusher, so they should turn their sights towards the addition of a playmaker on offense. Wright has the ability to be a game changer right out of the gate and should be a big help for Ryan Fitzpatrick. |
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11. Kansas City — QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) — It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs throwing caution to the wind and taking Tannehill here, but if they’re as enamored with him as several sources seem to think, it will be hard to pass him by when they get on the clock. Having Tannehill will definitely push Matt Cassel to play better or sit down, and the Chiefs will be better as a result one way or another. |
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12. Seattle — LB Luke Kuechly (Boston College) — Upgrading their defensive line will be a high priority this off-season in Seattle, but with a talent like Kuechly on the board, it will be difficult to ignore him in favor of lesser players that happen to be positions of need. Kuechly is as versatile as they come and can run sideline to sideline to chase down opposing players with ease, something the Seahawks most definitely need. |
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13. Arizona — OG David DeCastro (Stanford) — If the Chiefs pass on DeCastro with their pick, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Cardinals will jump all over him. Drafting a guard this high carries some risk, but DeCastro has the ability to be one of the very best at his position for the next ten years and that’s worth a selection in and of itself, so there’s no way he’ll slide very far. |
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14. Dallas — OG Cordy Glenn (Georgia) — If for some reason both Kansas City and Arizona pass on taking DeCastro, there’s no way Dallas would do the same. That said, the Chiefs are taking him in this mock, so with the secondary issues partially solved with the addition of Brandon Carr, I think the Cowboys will look at Glenn to shore up their offensive line. |
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15. Philadelphia – DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State) — Andy Reid is never one to shy away from taking a defensive lineman high in the draft, and with a talent like Cox staring back at him, it will be very hard to go elsewhere with this pick. If Reid does look in another direction, cornerback or linebacker will likely be the two other options on the table. |
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16. New York Jets — DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) — The Jets have a number of different ways they could go with this pick, one of which is to upgrade their pass rush with the addition of a versatile defensive lineman. That’s Ingram in a nutshell, and he’ll immediately help New York be more consistent on defense with his excellent speed and strength to fight through blockers. |
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17. Cincinnati — DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) * — The opportunity to add an elite pass rusher like Upshaw will be tough to ignore, regardless of other needs, and as such I think the Bengals would go after him quickly if he’s still on the board when they pick. In a pass happy league, pass rushers and defensive backs are the two positions everyone needs more of. |
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18. San Diego — DE/OLB Nick Perry (USC) — The Chargers are likely to release left tackle Marcus McNeill this off-season as a result of a serious neck injury, so finding an upgrade up front for their offensive line will be important at some point or another in this draft. That said, impact pass rushers like Perry don’t come along all that often, and as such, I can’t see the Bolts passing on him here. |
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19. Chicago - WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) — In previous years, it would have been hard to imagine three receivers going in the top 20 picks, but all three taken here have enough talent to warrant selections that high and the teams taking them all have a need at the position. The Bears definitely fit into that pattern and there’s little doubt that they will pull the trigger on a Floyd if he’s available. |
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20. Tennessee – DE Whitney Mercilus (Illinois) — The Titans have a few keys areas of need to address and while they’d like to fix the interior of their O-line first, the best player to help in that regard is off the board. So turning to their defensive line instead, a selection of Mercilus makes perfect sense given the skill set he brings to the table. |
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21. Cincinnati – CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) — I’d like to think the Bengals would shy away from taking a risk on Kirkpatrick and upgrade their running back depth instead, but that’s asking way too much of a club that’s known far and wide for overlooking character and emphasizing potential. Adding Kirkpatrick will be a big help nonetheless, provided he stays out of trouble and on the field. |
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22. Cleveland – OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) — With a future superstar at running back locked up early on, the Browns will almost certainly focus their second pick in this round on upgrading in the trenches, and a selection of Martin would be a great start to that. Depending on what Mike Holmgren chooses to do though, a quarterback like Brandon Weeden could be in play as well. |
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23. Detroit - CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama) — All of Jenkins off the field issues will likely push him down the ladder come draft day, but NFL teams are always willing to look the other way when talent and potential are present, so I think he’ll still get taken in the first round. The Lions have a major need for an upgrade at the corner position and Jenkins could be a perfect fit if they can keep him out of trouble. |
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24. Pittsburgh – LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) — With the release of longtime stalwart at linebacker James Farrior, the Steelers will have to find his replacement in this draft, and there’s no better player on the board to fill that role than Hightower, who has significant experience in the 3-4 defense. |
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25. Denver – DT Michael Brockers (LSU) — The Broncos have to find a way to upgrade the interior of their defensive line and with Brockers still on the board, Denver shouldn’t hesitate for long in making their pick. Brockers has the ability to generate a solid amount of push to clog running lanes and is capable of getting after the quarterback on passing downs, two things every team covets in their defensive tackles. |
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26. Houston – WR Reuben Randle (LSU) — The Texans don’t have much to work with across from Andre Johnson and as such, I suspect they’ll be looking for an upgrade with this pick, provided they don’t address the need via free agency first. Randle has the ability to make teams pay for doubling Johnson and will make life that much easier for Matt Schaub next year. |
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27. New England – DT Devin Still (Penn State) * — Still has enough talent and versatility to be selected higher, and as such, if he’s here when the Patriots pick, you can bet that Belichick will think long and hard about pulling the trigger. |
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28. Green Bay – DE/OLB Vinny Curry (Marshall) — As a reader rightly pointed out to me after my last update, the Packers have a definite need in their pass rush, which struggled mightily last season down the stretch. That leaves the door open to selecting a player like Curry, who has prototypical size and speed to play as a OLB in the 3-4, pairing with Clay Matthews to form a dynamite pass rushing duo. |
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29. Baltimore – OG Peter Konz (Wisconsin) — With Hightower off the board, the Ravens are likely to turn towards upgrading their offensive line, which has a few issues, most notably the age of center Matt Birk. He’ll give it another go this season but the Ravens aren’t known for waiting until they have no other choice to pick up replacements, so it makes sense for them to address their depth right now with Konz. |
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30. San Francisco – TE Coby Fleener (Stanford) — In spite of the protests I’ve received over this pick, adding a tight end to the mix with Vernon Davis makes absolute sense on a number of levels, and I really think Jim Harbaugh will look long and hard at Fleener here. If you don’t believe me that having two talented tight ends can work, take a look at the Patriots and then get back to me. |
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31. New England – S Mark Barron (Alabama) — With the signing of Brandon Lloyd, the Patriots no longer have any need to draft a receiver early on in this draft. Addressing their porous defense will be priority number one though, and adding a top notch safety like Barron will be a huge help next fall. |
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32. New York Giants – TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) — After losing not one, but two tight ends to torn knee ligaments in the Super Bowl, the Giants will have to turn to the draft to fill their shoes and Allen is more than capable of handling that role. Giving Eli Manning another target to throw to is never a bad idea in any case. |
